Interesting Trends to Watch - Is Search Still The "Big Game"

I always enjoy charts and graphs that go up and to the right 6 years back and 4 years forward. It's always good to look at the "actual data" v.s. the projected data, as future assumptive values are skewed by perceptions.

In this well written piece by Laurie Sullivan @ Media Post she examines initially the great current growth of Paid Search:

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=134119

People who are familiar would not be surprised, as Paid Search is generally more response driven. Of course marketers with their jobs on the line, will select mediums, which can draw a clear line from marketing investment to sales. We saw this through our last big recession too. I think we all remember that big Google IPO.

It's very clear the web spending will increase, mobile ad spending will increase, print will decrease (but not die), radio, outdoor, and TV will likely remain somewhat stagnant.

The biggest question is, who will succeed and grow the fastest? Social Networking is certainly hot! In fact, to a certain extent, Social Networking will erode the growth of Search. Why, people will increasingly rely on site recommendations from friends via Social Networks, thus making Social Networks the big traffic drivers and "starting points" on the web.

Sure, more intent driven searches will start at Google & Bing, but those searches will usually land on blogs... Blogs like Social Networks are huge drivers of traffic, and in general, bloggers come with a larger perception of authority as they tend to be experts in their respective fields.

So, should / will the next headline read "Social Media Killed Search" ?

Google Trading Desk for Omnicom

The fundamental shift of traditional media buying has taken another stride forward. The way in which agencies are accessing online advertising inventory is becoming a very important trend in today's agency / publisher relationships.

Last December, as part of AD Tech NYC, I was invited to a great presentation and panel hosted by Neo@Ogilvy. Bant Breen was openly discussing Initiative's desire to enter the "Ad Network Space" as it would provide better pricing, and more liquidity for their brands. In addition, of course, is the ability for Initiative to cut out the "Ad Network" middleman, and pocket some additional revenue for the agency. Over the past 6-8 years, ad networks have enjoyed enormous margins on media, where agencies continue to get squeezed. It's really quite unfair, as agencies perform a lot of service for a smaller piece of the media dollar pie. Who knows what exactly will happen over time, but one thing is for certain. The major value in the media buying relationship will be access to inventory, and data with a technology platform to enable very targeted and efficient buying at scale.

I think that there are many companies who are in jeopardy as the industry matures. Specifically, ad networks who do not have proprietary data or technology are in grave danger of becoming obsolete. In fact, it surprises me to see some of the dinosaurs still in business today.

Initially I was very scared and intimidated by Google's move into this field. Google has the data, they have the technology, so why shouldn't the conquer the media world single handed.... Because nobody wants to see Google conquer the world. It's important for agencies and brands to keep a large mix of media companies alive, otherwise face a single vendor to negotiate with.

This will be a very interesting time to watch for online media, and its implications across all media over time.

Here's the full story on Omnicom & Google http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=132051