Over the many years that I have been in online advertising, most everyone wants to know the big question. "Is online ad spending going to increase, decrease, or remain even?" There are several companies who forecast ad spend, and eMarketer is one of the most watched. Here's their latest:
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?Ne=1040&N=685&No=19&R=1007756&xsrc=article_head_sitesearchx
I think that their prediction of a 10% bounce in 2010 is a fair estimate. I always get a little cynical about their longer term predictions, and they have forecasted some hefty growth from $22 Billion in 2009 to $36 billion in 2014. That's phenomenal growth of 64% in 4 years - Wow!, and really?
I'm always a glass half full type person, but I think there's a lot of potential of error in this number. The economy is in a slow, slow, slow growth phase right now, and the companies who need to spend the $36 billion need to be in good shape to support... right!
I generally look at the DJIA as a great indicator of quarterly or annual growth. It's the best current and slightly forward looking economic indicator. If you were to ask anyone on Wall Street what the DJIA will close at in 2014, they would pretty much laugh, and say "of course higher than today".
That said, I am very bullish for online advertising as people spend more and more time on the web. It's likely one of the most efficient mediums for transmitting a message. Super advanced targeting, ability to respond immediately with exact measurement, ability to influence larger purchase decisions like autos and enterprise technology, and relatively cheap.
So, even though I feel that eMarketer is being a little irresponsible with their predictions of growth, in general I fully agree that we should see very strong growth in our industry for years to come.
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?Ne=1040&N=685&No=19&R=1007756&xsrc=article_head_sitesearchx
I think that their prediction of a 10% bounce in 2010 is a fair estimate. I always get a little cynical about their longer term predictions, and they have forecasted some hefty growth from $22 Billion in 2009 to $36 billion in 2014. That's phenomenal growth of 64% in 4 years - Wow!, and really?
I'm always a glass half full type person, but I think there's a lot of potential of error in this number. The economy is in a slow, slow, slow growth phase right now, and the companies who need to spend the $36 billion need to be in good shape to support... right!
I generally look at the DJIA as a great indicator of quarterly or annual growth. It's the best current and slightly forward looking economic indicator. If you were to ask anyone on Wall Street what the DJIA will close at in 2014, they would pretty much laugh, and say "of course higher than today".
That said, I am very bullish for online advertising as people spend more and more time on the web. It's likely one of the most efficient mediums for transmitting a message. Super advanced targeting, ability to respond immediately with exact measurement, ability to influence larger purchase decisions like autos and enterprise technology, and relatively cheap.
So, even though I feel that eMarketer is being a little irresponsible with their predictions of growth, in general I fully agree that we should see very strong growth in our industry for years to come.
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